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2023 GVA Real Estate Market Summary and What Lies Ahead for 2024? (English)

Jan 2nd 2024

Happy New Year to all! Let's kick off the first workday of 2024 with insights into the real estate market. The essence of market trends is best captured in data charts. Let's delve into the five most notable trends with representative regions and cities, showcasing average and median price trends throughout the year. Compare these with your own market experiences:

for Single Detached with lot size less than 55,000sqft ONLY

for Single Detached with lot size less than 55,000sqft ONLY

The market in 2023 witnessed consistently low trading volumes, attributed to extended deliberation by sellers and buyers amidst external factors. Despite this, the prices remained stable, reinforcing our long-standing belief that the Greater Vancouver housing market is resilient and won't experience a significant decline.

The market's behavior can be attributed to several factors, with interest rates and loans taking center stage. The period from 2022 to 2023 saw repeated interest rate hikes and various rumors causing uncertainty. The gap between sellers and buyers narrowed gradually till the end of 2023, reality shattered the firm resolve of some sellers, and the long-awaited "big drop" eroded buyers' patience. In the latter half of the year, the market witnessed more moderate transactions. Congrats to those buyers who took action during this time, securing properties at relatively stable prices for the next three years. Sellers, too, benefited by selling at a low-inflation price, contributing to a healthier market with safer prices and enhanced liquidity.

Looking ahead to 2024, we hold the premise that real estate in the Greater Vancouver area may no longer be a lucrative investment. The average sold price of a detached house is projected to increase by about 3-5% annually over the next three years, if an average annual return of 6-8% is a standard.

  • Apartments will play a crucial role in balancing market supply and demand. While they might not be ideal investment products, especially for new apartments under five years old, the government is likely to approve the construction of higher-density apartments in core areas to alleviate supply-demand imbalances.

  • With current interest rates expected to be wandering at 3-4% over the next three years, loan approval may remain challenging. The focus will likely shift towards individuals with genuine self-occupancy needs, local, and stable incomes, potentially discouraging speculative activities.

  • For owner-occupiers, the current and upcoming year present favorable times to purchase homes. The single-family home market in Greater Vancouver is expected to see an average annual growth of 3-5% over the next three years, resisting inflationary pressures.

  • Concerns about an influx of new residents may be alleviated by market dynamics and government policies. Recent data, such as a population outflow from BC to AB and immigration control measures, suggest a balanced supply-demand outlook. While these policies won't alter the long-term positive trend, they can prevent short-term market fluctuations.

As this is a summary and forecast, these are our insights into the market. We extend sincere thanks to relatives, friends, and clients for their ongoing support in the past year. We pledge to redouble our efforts to reciprocate the love received. Grateful for 2023, we look forward to an even better 2024! Happy New Year to everyone—wishing you health, safety, and fulfillment!

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